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The Inanity of Politicians Talking Trade

An example of just how bonkers – and bipartisanly so – are many allegedly serious discussions by political types of trade is found in this short report on a recent hearing on Capitol Hill. In this hearing, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) complained about America’s trade deficit in agricultural goods. And U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai (also at this hearing) apparently treated this complaint as if it is economically meaningful.

But of course an “ag trade deficit” is no more economically meaningful than is a “yellow-things trade deficit” or a “things-bigger-than-a-breadbasket trade surplus.” There is absolutely no reason to expect that a country will export – during any year or over time – the same amount of agricultural products that it imports. Indeed, because of the principle of comparative advantage, each country will import things that it doesn’t produce at home and export different things. In short, countries are supposed to have so-called ‘trade deficits’ in some things and so-called ‘trade surpluses’ in other things.

Because “agricultural goods” is a portmanteau category – a category that includes many different agricultural  goods (strawberries, wheat, pineapples, pork bellies, etc.) some of which we Americans produce at a comparative advantage and others of which we  produce at a comparative disadvantage – America almost certainly runs ‘surpluses’ in some of these goods and ‘deficits’ in others. For example, America might be a net exporter of wheat, maple syrup, and rawhides, and a net importer of grapes, artichokes, and salmon. It’s therefore possible that in a calendar year American exports of “ag goods” would equal American imports of “ag goods.” But, again, there simply no reason to expect any such ‘equality’ and, thus, mentioning and treating the “ag trade deficit” as if it is an economically meaningful concept only shows how primitive trade-policy discussions (and trade-policy making) remain in 2024.

(HT to Ricky Wylde for sending the piece linked to above.)

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Bonus Quotation of the Day…

is from page 102 of the 5th edition (2020) of Douglas Irwin’s superb book Free Trade Under Fire (footnote deleted; link added):

When the Trump administration decided in 2018 to impose a 25 percent tariff on all imported steel, the same employment tradeoffs emerged…. The steel industry employs about 147,000 workers, while there are roughly 2.3 million workers in steel-using industries. The tariffs cost Ford Motor Company a billion dollars in added costs of production because the tariffs made American steel the most expensive in the world. The higher steel costs also hurt Caterpillar and John Deere, as well as machinery producers. One study suggested that, as a result of the steel tariff, the number of jobs in the iron and steel industry and the fabricated metal products industry would increase by 44,000, but there would be 17,000 fewer jobs in motor vehicles and parts and 209,000 fewer jobs in construction.

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Some Links

George Will reminds us of the terrible reality of nuclear weapons. A slice:

Future historians, if there are any, will be dumbfounded. Today, uncountable dollars and unquantifiable hysteria are devoted to the distant threat of climate change milder than some changes Earth has experienced. A recent peer-reviewed study of scientific estimates concludes that the average annual cost of what the excitable U.N. secretary general calls “global boiling” might reach 2 percent of global gross domestic product by 2100. Meanwhile, negligible public anxiety accompanies the intensifying danger of global incineration from nuclear war.

Richard Reinsch warns of the coming of stakeholder statism.

Congratulations to Ed Glaeser.

Gary Galles is realistic about voting.

Brad Thompson suggests that the Ivy League be defunded.

Let’s hope that Chris Horner is correct that the “EPA’s deceptive climate regulations won’t stand in court.” A slice:

Like the Clean Power Plan, the EPA’s newly finalized replacement rule requires adoption of technology that doesn’t exist. More remarkably, the agency simultaneously published the rules governing mercury, water emissions and solid-waste storage, all of which it had clumsily promised would drive plants to close and thereby reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

EPA officials apparently grasp that the opinion in West Virginia prohibits the practice that admirers call “law whispering” or “teaching old laws new tricks”—particularly on major questions like contriving changes in our energy mix. Gone are paeans to inventive ways of coercing plants to retire. With a newfound modesty, the administrative record published for these non-greenhouse-gas emissions rules disputes claims of causing “a significant number of retirements” and attributes any generation shifting to Inflation Reduction Act subsidies.

My intrepid Mercatus Center colleague, Veronique de Rugy, reports on a California diktat regarding railroads that could have significant – and negative – effects nationwide. A slice:

The kicker is that no technology exists today to enable railroads to comply with California’s diktat, rendering the whole exercise fanciful at best.

The Wall Street Journal‘s editorial board explained last November that while Wabtec Corp. has introduced a pioneering advance in rail technology with the launch of the world’s first battery-powered locomotive, the dream of a freight train fully powered by batteries remains elusive. The challenges of substituting diesel with batteries—primarily due to batteries’ substantial weight and volume—make it an impractical solution for long-haul trains. Additionally, the risk of battery overheating and potential explosions, which can emit harmful gases, is a significant safety concern. As the editorial noted, “Even if the technology for zero-emission locomotives eventually arrives, railroads will have to test them over many years to guarantee their safety.”

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 343 of A. James Meigs’s Fall 1988 Cato Journal paper, “Dollars and Deficits: Substituting False for Real Problems,” as this paper appears as chapter 14 of Dollars, Deficits, & Trade (James A. Dorn and William A. Niskanen, eds., 1989) (footnote deleted):

The total capital stock available to U.S. workers and businesses, for any given U.S. saving rate, surely must grow more rapidly with an inflow of capital from abroad than it would without that inflow, even though some imported capital may be consumed instead of being invested in productive facilities. The greater growth of capital stock, therefore, must be reflected in greater growth of total U.S. product (and consumption) than we otherwise would have. So the “burden of debt service” can be paid out of the greater product. How would this be different from the burden of domestic debts? Why does it matter who holds the debt (or equity)?

Foreign owners of businesses in the United States receive the marginal product of their capital, but American workers and various state, local, and federal tax authorities get the rest of the product of the enterprises in which the capital is employed. The total product is certainly greater than it would be without the capital. Moreover, Japanese and European plant managers are now bringing improved management techniques to our country, just as American managers took improved management techniques to other developing countries in the past.

DBx: Worrying about a U.S. trade deficit is akin to worrying about your neighbors saving some of their income in order to invest in your business.

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They Can Afford It! – Not

In my latest column for AIER I take on the often-heard argument that hikes in minimum wages will not harm low-skilled workers because rich companies “can afford it.” Two slices:

The most obvious error in using the “they can afford it” argument to justify a hike in the minimum wage is that having on hand enough cash to purchase something at a particular price is hardly a condition sufficient to ensure that such purchases will be made. Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, and my protesting students presume that if the minimum wage is hiked, Walmart and other employers of low-skilled workers will simply dip into their cash reserves to cover the costs of paying higher wages. But this presumption is mistaken. Even if Walmart has in reserve billions of dollars of cash, nothing compels Walmart to spend any of these reserves on higher wages. The ability to pay for something doesn’t make purchasing that something an attractive deal for the wealth holder. You, I’m sure, can afford to buy baby diapers. But if you don’t have a baby, the ‘affordability’ of baby diapers to you will not prompt you to run out and buy them. The gain you’d get from owning diapers is less than the cost you’d incur to buy them.

And so it is with the employment of low-skilled workers. Because a hike in the minimum wage pushes the cost of employing some workers above the gain the firm gets from employing these workers, the firm adjusts to the higher minimum wage by changing its employment practices to ensure that every dollar it spends employing labor brings in for the firm more than a dollar in revenue. Workers who cost more to employ at the minimum wage than these workers contribute to any firm’s bottom line will not be employed.

This fact holds true regardless of how profitable or rich firms might be. Just because Elon Musk can afford to employ someone at an annual salary of $100 million to daily shine his shoes doesn’t mean that he’ll employ such a person at that wage if the government declares that the minimum annual pay for shoe-shiners is $100 million. Likewise, just because Walmart might be able to ‘afford’ to employ at $15 per hour a worker who generates no more revenue than $11 per hour doesn’t mean that Walmart will employ that person at $15 per hour simply because the government raises the minimum wage to $15 per hour.

There is, however, a deeper economic point: Even companies with unusually high net worth cannot, in fact, afford to pay workers more than those workers contribute to the companies’ bottom lines.

…..

One additional point is worth mentioning: Even if the above analysis using Walmart were wrong – that is, even if the likes of Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna are right to insist that a hike in the minimum wage will cause none of Walmart’s and other ‘rich’ corporations’ low-skilled workers to be laid off – the case for raising the minimum wage would not be much strengthened. The reason is that many employers of low-skilled workers do not have large net worths. Relatively few local restaurants, local nurseries, McDonald’s franchisees (which are companies distinct  from McDonald’s, Inc.), and local retailers have billions (or even millions) in net worth. Therefore, for the likes of Messrs. Sanders and Khanna to point to the high net worths of companies such as Walmart and McDonald’s, Inc., as a reason why hikes in the minimum wage would have no adverse impact on any low-skilled workers is uninformed and unreflective nonsense.

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Some Links

Jeffrey Blehar has an easy and good time poking fun at some of the ‘leaders’ of the pro-Palestine ‘student’ protestors at Columbia. A slice:

But they are now entrenched inside the building, have set up camp and barricaded the doors, and are refusing to budge in the face of the threats of expulsion. (Only now, at this late moment, is expulsion finally on the table for Columbia.) And they have found a spokeswoman. Allow me the pleasure of introducing you to one Johannah King-Slutzky, Ph.D. candidate in the English and Comparative Literature Department at Columbia. She focuses on . . . well, “stuff,” near as I can gather from her biography page on the department’s website. She IS also (and unsurprisingly) happy to mention she comes from a lengthy background in left-wing protest:

My dissertation is on fantasies of limitless energy in the transatlantic Romantic imagination from 1760-1860. My goal is to write a prehistory of metabolic rift, Marx’s term for the disruption of energy circuits caused by industrialization under capitalism. I am particularly interested in theories of the imagination and poetry as interpreted through a Marxian lens in order to update and propose an alternative to historicist ideological critiques of the Romantic imagination. Prior to joining Columbia, I worked as a political strategist for leftist and progressive causes and remain active in the higher education labor movement.

I’m guessing that this is a lady with a lot of free time on her hands, is all I’m saying. (Look, some theses just take longer to draft than others.)

[DBx: More and more I’m convinced of the accuracy of Schumpeter’s prediction that capitalism will nourish and equip its ignorant yet merciless executioners.]

“A Tale of Three Universities: Northwestern appeases its protesters. Florida enforces its rules. Columbia is a mess.” A slice:

The University of Florida took a different approach. In a statement Monday evening, the school said protesters who engaged in prohibited activities would face a trespassing order and an “interim” suspension from the university. “This is not complicated,” a spokesman said. “The University of Florida is not a daycare, and we do not treat protesters like children—they knew the rules, they broke the rules, and they’ll face the consequences.”

That’s appropriate, and it’s also a life lesson. Florida’s message shows respect for a liberal education environment and students who attend college to learn something. Appeasement does the opposite.

At Columbia, meanwhile, President Minouche Shafik tried to negotiate with protesters to coax them to dismantle their Little Gaza, but students escalated instead. After faculty objected to New York police arrests of student protesters, Ms. Shafik said she wouldn’t invite law enforcement back on campus. On Monday night protesters rewarded her forbearance by breaking a window, taking over Hamilton Hall, and hanging an “Intifada” banner.

Richard Rahn is bearish on Ivy League ‘schools.’

Jon Miltimore: “A Marxist economist [Richard Wolff] explains why socialism could never reate a PS5.” Here’s Jon’s conclusion:

Wolff, like Marx, seems completely unaware of what drives market innovation. To believe that a PS5 would emerge from a process of individuals talking to one another about how much they should be paid and weighing one’s interest for a gaming system against the interests of co-workers who desire something else is to ignore both history and the fundamentals of economics.

But perhaps this should not surprise us.

“If socialists understood economics,” the Nobel Prize-winning economist F. A. Hayek once quipped, “they wouldn’t be socialists.”

Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding have a new global inflation tracker.

John Stossel and GMU Econ alum Ed Stringham understand the reality of government.

Kenneth Costello argues that “economists’ advocacy for a carbon tax is misguided.” Two slices:

Overall, models that calculate the SCC [social costs of carbon] are non-robust, and highly dependent on the parameters and assumptions contained in them. Interest groups, policymakers, analysts and others can easily manipulate the models to produce results to their liking. Using a discount rate of two or three percent, rather than seven percent, for example, can have a significant effect on the SCC calculation. One then can legitimately question whether predictions of the SCC actually reflect unbiased analysis. When policymakers apply an inflated SCC, restrictions on carbon emissions (whether by executing a high carbon tax or tighter controls), require society to expend excess resources on curbing emissions — that is, the additional abatement costs exceed the reduced damages from emissions, causing a net welfare loss.

…..

It may well also be true that existing government measures to reduce carbon emissions (electric-vehicle mandates, renewable-energy subsidies) have already moved emissions near or even below the optimal level. An additional measure such as a carbon tax may actually lower economic efficiency by increasing abatement costs more than the added benefits. Although this becomes an empirical question, one can conceive conditions under which this outcome becomes imaginable. This illustrates yet another example where blackboard economics has overlooked a real-world condition that could make a carbon tax less attractive.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 203 of George Will’s 2021 book, American Happiness and Discontents: The Unruly Torrent, 2008-2020 – a collection of many of his columns over these years; (the column from which the quotation below is drawn was originally published in the Washington Post on February 28th, 2010) (original emphasis):

It is scientifically sensible to say that all behavior is in some sense caused. But a society that thinks scientific determinism renders personal responsibility a chimera must consider it absurd not only to condemn depravity but also to praise nobility. Such moral derangement can flow from exaggerated notions of what science teaches, or can teach, about the biological and environmental roots of behavior.

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The Reality of Industrial Policy

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal:

Editor:

We Americans are constantly warned that Beijing is cleverly orchestrating the Chinese economy’s eclipse of America’s – and, thus, Washington must respond in kind. But the recent report by Yoko Kubota and Clarence Leong should calm our fears. Your reporters note that the government in China is “encouraging unprofitable carmakers to keep producing as officials try to boost economic growth, preserve jobs and expand China’s role in the global electric-vehicle business” (“Why China Keeps Making More Cars Than It Needs,” April 29).

In other words, in a quest to gain a larger share of global sales in one particular industry, and to keep workers employed in jobs that are not worth their cost, Beijing is urging the continued operation of companies that destroy more economic value than they create. It’s a genuine mystery why the likes of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Robert Lighthizer, Elizabeth Warren, Josh Hawley, and Oren Cass think that genuine economic growth is achieved by governments commanding their citizens to waste resources.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

Art Carden correctly identifies tariffs as sanctions that governments impose on their own citizens. A slice:

Tariffs on foreign goods are “sanctions” on American consumers. Their crime? Not wanting to pay as much as domestic producers want.

Paul Sracic explains that “protectionism won’t save U.S. Steel’s jobs.” A slice:

It might be useful for the United Steel Workers to recall that the mills that closed in Youngstown were all union shops. History teaches that while unions can improve wages and working conditions for those working in the mills, they can’t make the mills economically sustainable. Cleveland-Cliffs announced it would close its unionized tinplate mill in Weirton, W.Va., this month. While the company blamed foreign competitors, the bipartisan International Trade Commission unanimously rejected the claim that imports were damaging Cleveland-Cliffs.

Even if the U.S. adopts tariffs and other countermeasures to raise the price of foreign steel, the older plants that formed the core of the old U.S. Steel will face increased competition from greener domestic rivals. A lack of investment and innovation destroyed steel jobs in the 1970s and ’80s. Politicians and others who oppose Nippon Steel’s purchase of U.S. Steel risk taking us down this road once again. Ironically, they are doing so in the name of the very working-class voters who will feel the brunt of the economic pain should these mills close.

Say, Arnold Kling writes insightfully about the market for bureaucrats.

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal warns of “a global wealth tax.” Two slices:

In our new socialist age, the demand to tax and redistribute income is insatiable. The latest brainstorm arrives in a proposal by four countries in the G-20 group of nations to impose a 2% wealth tax on the world’s billionaires. Don’t think this couldn’t happen.

…..

As you might expect, this would principally be a tax raid on Americans, who are the most numerous billionaires. It would also be taxation without representation, since it would be a body of global elites attempting to impose a tax without having passed Congress.

Hans Bader’s letter in today’s Wall Street Journal is excellent:

The editorial board is right to criticize a California legislative committee’s passage of reparations proposals that could cost taxpayers a huge amount of money (“Slavery Reparations in California?” April 24). Paying race-based reparations to blacks is unconstitutional. Under Supreme Court precedent, racial handouts are allowed only as a remedy for recent systemic discrimination by the unit of government providing the handout.

California wasn’t a slave state, and it hasn’t engaged in recent systemic discrimination against blacks, so reparations aren’t warranted under court rulings such as Coral Construction Co. v. King County (1991). Discrimination that occurred decades ago isn’t a reason for racial preferences under court rulings like Hammon v. Barry (1987), which rejected affirmative action as a remedy for discrimination that occurred 18 years earlier.

Moreover, the racial wealth gap isn’t due to segregation or government discrimination. Racial wealth gaps exist even in countries like Malaysia and Uganda, where the ethnic group with less wealth is politically dominant and received racial preferences from the government. So the racial wealth gap isn’t a reason for reparations.

Hans Bader
Arlington, Va.

GMU Econ alumn Dominic Pino puts an important question to today’s campus occupiers.

Vance Ginn is correct about Vermont’s perpetually angry socialist senator: “Sanders’s 4-Day Week Will Kill Flexible Jobs.”

Market competition!

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 414 of the 2016 second edition of Thomas Sowell’s important volume Wealth, Poverty and Politics (footnote deleted; link added):

This disdain [in Spain] toward those who were economically productive extended to such displays of bigotry as the mass expulsion of Jews in the fifteenth century and of Moriscos in the seventeenth century – mass exports of human capital in both cases. Such attitudes were not unique to Spain. It was said of serfdom in Russia that it simply put “much wealth in the hands of a spendthrift nobility.” In America, the plantation owners in the antebellum South were likewise noted for a spendthrift lifestyle and the region for lagging in the skills, work ethic and entrepreneurship more common in the rest of America. Those who seek to depict slavery as the basis for American prosperity fail to explain why the region where slavery was concentrated and flourished was the poorest and least progressive region of the country, as was also true in Brazil, the second largest slave-owning nation in the Western Hemisphere.

DBx: And also, Brazil clung to slavery longer than did the United States.

The proposition that today’s wealth in capitalist societies is the fruit of slavery is among those propositions that are most irreconcilable with history and most unsalvageable in theory.

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