Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 18, 2024

Ethiopia

Somalia

A photo of the Somali flag.

Military & Security

Politics

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

China

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Greater U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

U.S.-China Relations

Media

Podcasts

Economics

Social Issues

What role should social listening play in the mitigation of social risk?

RANE Insights: Understanding the Public Perception of DEI

Iran

Israel

A billboard depicting Iranian ballistic missiles pictured April 15, 2024, in Valiasr Square in central Tehran. Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

How Israel's Response to Iran Could Accelerate the Iranian Nuclear Program

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Brazil

Colombia

Germany

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Europe

Glass-like molecules float against a green and purple background.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The European Union's gradual adoption of green hydrogen will bolster its energy security and create new global energy relations.

Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 2: Charting the Path

What are Israel and Hezbollah's goals from their escalating tit-for-tat exchanges?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Israel and Hezbollah's Border Crisis

Niger

What are Niger's security options going forward?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Niger's Security Landscape

Latest

Russia

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Snapshots

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

United Kingdom

A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones. 

Cyber

In the United Kingdom and the United States, a focus on innovation will sideline robust artificial intelligence regulations.

The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration

Turkey

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Haiti

A woman carrying a child runs from an area in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, after hearing gunshots on March 20, 2024.

The Caribbean nation's humanitarian and security crises are set to worsen in the weeks ahead, as gangs seize more territory and the U.N.-backed security deployment faces delays.

In Haiti, Weeks of Extreme Gang Violence Show No Sign of Easing

Ukraine

Afghanistan

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Mali

Mali's junta leader Col. Assimi Goita on April 15 ordered the creation of a rapid intervention force within the army, L'Essor reported on April 17.

Mali: Junta Creates Rapid Intervention Force

The government of Ethiopia's northern Amhara region accused the Tigray region's interim administration of disregarding the November 2022 Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement and urged it to "vacate the areas it occupied recently" in southern Tigray, Addis Standard reported on April 17.

Ethiopia: Amhara-Tigray Tensions Rise Following Clashes in Southern Tigray 

Qatar

Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Qatar is reassessing its role as a mediator in the Israel-Hamas war amid stalled attempts to broker a cease-fire and U.S. and Israeli criticism of Qatar's handling of negotiations, BBC reported on April 17. 

Qatar: Doha Reassesses Mediator Role in Israel-Hamas War

Croatia

The incumbent, pro-EU, center-right Croatian Democratic Union party, or HDZ, won Croatia's parliamentary elections, securing 61 out of 151 seats in Parliament, Reuters reported on April 18.

Croatia: Incumbent Center-Right Party To Lead Government Formation After Electoral Victory

Science & Technology

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said the United Kingdom is considering possible new outbound investment and export restrictions on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, cryogenic equipment and facial recognition technology due to potential security risks tied to technology transfers to adversarial countries such as Russia and China, Bloomberg reported on April 18.

U.K., China: London Considers New Restrictions on Emerging Tech Over Security Risks

A senior official of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, warned that Iran could review its nuclear policy if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported on April 18. 

Iran, Israel: Iran Warns Israeli Military Strike May Change Tehran's Nuclear Doctrine

The U.S. Biden administration will likely grant a request by South Korea's photovoltaic cell manufacturer Qcells to reverse a two-year-old exemption from new tariffs on bifacial solar panel imports, Reuters reported on April 17.

U.S.: Washington To Restore Tariffs on Bifacial Solar Panels

Venezuela

The U.S. Treasury Department announced it would not renew a general license expiring on April 18 that significantly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, Reuters reported on April 17.

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Reimposes Some Oil Sanctions on Venezuela

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

South Africa

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

According to Chinese customs data, China's exports to Russia fell almost 16% in March from a year earlier, marking the first year-over-year decline since 2022, Bloomberg reported on April 17. 

Russia, China: Chinese Exports to Russia Fall for First Time Since 2022 Amid Payment Issues

U.S. tech executive Elon Musk is scheduled to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 22 during his visit to India to discuss electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla's plans to enter in the Indian market, Reuters reported on April 17.

India: Elon Musk Will Likely Announce EV Investment During Visit to India

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Junta Creates Rapid Intervention Force

Ethiopia: Amhara-Tigray Tensions Rise Following Clashes in Southern Tigray

Qatar: Doha Reassesses Mediator Role in Israel-Hamas War

Croatia: Incumbent Center-Right Party To Lead Government Formation After Electoral Victory

U.K., China: London Considers New Restrictions on Emerging Tech Over Security Risks

Iran, Israel: Iran Warns Israeli Military Strike May Change Tehran's Nuclear Doctrine

U.S.: Washington To Restore Tariffs on Bifacial Solar Panels

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Reimposes Some Oil Sanctions on Venezuela

Russia, China: Chinese Exports to Russia Fall for First Time Since 2022 Amid Payment Issues

India: Elon Musk Will Likely Announce EV Investment During Visit to India

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