Assessments

Ecuador

Iran

Israel

China

Europe

A banner depicts IRGC missile models aimed at Israel on April 16 in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The ongoing confrontation may be entering a de-escalation phase after the April 19 Israeli counterstrike to Iran's April 13 salvo against Israel.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict, Ecuador's Constitutional Referendum

Media

United States

Podcasts

Economics

Social Issues

What are the biggest issues with the U.S. healthcare system, and how can we address them?

RANE Insights: Addressing Problems in the U.S. Healthcare System

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

Russia

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 18, 2024

Iraq

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

U.S.-Iran Relations

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

India

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Ethiopia

Somalia

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Greater U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

U.S.-China Relations

What role should social listening play in the mitigation of social risk?

RANE Insights: Understanding the Public Perception of DEI

Latest

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024. 

Without productivity-enhancing economic reform, China's economic growth will likely continue to slow amid insufficient demand and continued over-investment.

Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China

June 9 European Parliament elections will likely see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains in several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties.

2024 Elections: The European Union

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

United Kingdom

A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones. 

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

In the United Kingdom and the United States, a focus on innovation will sideline robust artificial intelligence regulations.

The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration

Turkey

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Philippines

India delivered the initial batch of BrahMos cruise missiles to the Philippines under a $375 million agreement signed in 2022, Voice of America reported on April 23. 

India: Philippines Receives Shipment of Indian Supersonic Cruise Missiles

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Iraq for the first time in 13 years culminated in the signing of 26 agreements, including a multilateral memorandum of understanding between the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Iraq for the Development Road project, Anadolu Agency reported on April 23.

Turkey, Iraq: Erdogan's Iraq Visit Yields Development and Security Agreements

Thailand

The Thai Cabinet approved a plan to transition senators' selection process away from military appointment once the senatorial term ends on May 10, though the new process will not be a public vote, Bloomberg reported April 23.

Thailand: New Senator Selection Process Will Reduce Military's Power

Armenia

Azerbaijan

The first border demarcator was installed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Kommersant reported on April 23. 

Azerbaijan, Armenia: Border Demarcation Commences, Sparking Protests

China's rubberstamp legislature will discuss amendments to the Statistics Law during its April 23-26 session, Reuters reported on April 23.

China: Statistics Rules To Help With Policy Implementation, but Not With Beijing's Data Manipulation

Zambia

Science & Technology

Zambia's state-owned electricity utility ZESCO said the country will face a 700-megawatt deficit in power generation in 2024 amid Zambia's worst drought on record, Reuters reported on April 22.

Zambia: Government Looks To Ramp Up Power Imports Amid Drought-Induced Power Deficit 

The British government's Safety of Rwanda Bill, which aims to save a controversial plan to relocate asylum seekers to the African country, will become law after receiving the backing of the upper house, The Guardian reported on April 23.

U.K.: Parliament Approves Controversial Plan To Send Asylum Seekers to Rwanda

Namibia

Portuguese energy corporation Galp Energia launched its farm-out sale of half of its 80% stake in the Namibian oil block in the Orange Basin holding the Mopane oil and gas discovery, which the company estimates holds at least 10 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent, Reuters reported on April 22.

Namibia: Galp Energia Launches Farm-Out of Namibia’s Massive Mopane Oil and Gas Discovery

Satellite photos showed undetermined groups constructing tents around the Gaza Strip's Israeli-controlled southern city of Khan Younis, likely in preparation for a new wave of civilian evacuations ahead of Israel's attack on the nearby city of Rafah, AP reported on April 23.

Israel, Gaza: Satellite Photos Reveal Likely Preparations for Rafah Offensive

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Poland

Spain

Italy

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Argentine President Javier Milei announced that in the first quarter of 2024, Argentina reached a fiscal surplus of 0.2% of gross domestic product due to severe spending cuts and the halting of public works, marking the country's first quarterly fiscal surplus since 2008, Bloomberg reported on April 22.

Argentina: President Announces First Quarterly Fiscal Surplus in 16 Years

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Philippines Receives Shipment of Indian Supersonic Cruise Missiles

Turkey, Iraq: Erdogan's Iraq Visit Yields Development and Security Agreements

Thailand: New Senator Selection Process Will Reduce Military's Power

Azerbaijan, Armenia: Border Demarcation Commences, Sparking Protests

China: Statistics Rules To Help With Policy Implementation, but Not With Beijing's Data Manipulation

Zambia: Government Looks To Ramp Up Power Imports Amid Drought-Induced Power Deficit

U.K.: Parliament Approves Controversial Plan To Send Asylum Seekers to Rwanda

Namibia: Galp Energia Launches Farm-Out of Namibia’s Massive Mopane Oil and Gas Discovery

Israel, Gaza: Satellite Photos Reveal Likely Preparations for Rafah Offensive

Argentina: President Announces First Quarterly Fiscal Surplus in 16 Years

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