Steve Blank

Bill Gurley was one of Silicon Valley’s smartest and most successful VCs. He recently gave a talk at the All-In Summit that was really two talks in one. The first part was railing against the consequences of regulatory capture on innovation and a second part, about the consequences of premature government regulation of AI and why the incumbents are all for it. He illustrated his talk with regulatory horror stories in the telecom market, electronic health records, and Covid antigen tests.

Bill’s closing line, “The reason why Silicon Valley is so successful is that it’s so fxxxng far away from Washington” received great applause. Unfortunately, for startups entering a regulated market following this advice this might not be the optimum path.

(You can watch Bill’s entire 24-minute talk here or his thesis summarized in this 7 second clip here. https://youtu.be/HMIyDf3gBoY?feature=shared )

Let’s be clear, rent seekers and regulatory capture strangle innovation in its crib. It’s the antithesis of how founders want to build a business. (And to be fair that was the was the point of the last part of Bill’s presentation.) But entrepreneurs entering regulated markets need to understand how the game is played, how they can play it, what their VC’s should be doing to help them, and how to win.

Regulation
What’s regulatory capture? Why is it bad? And why was Bill’s advice of staying away from Washington flawed for startups?

All businesses have regulations to follow – paying taxes, incorporating the company, complying with financial reporting. And some have to ensure that there are no patents or blocking patents. But regulated markets are different. Regulated marketplaces have significant government regulation to promote and protect (ostensibly) the public interest for the benefit of all citizens. A good example is the regulations the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) have in place for approving new drugs and medical devices.

In a regulated market, the government controls how products and services are allowed to enter the market, what prices may be charged, what features the product/service must have, safety of the product, environmental regulations, labor laws, domestic/foreign content, etc. In the U.S. regulation happens on three levels:

• federal laws that are applicable across the country developed by Federal government in Washington, D.C.
• state laws that are applicable in one state imposed by state government
• local city and county laws come from local government

Federal Regulation
In the U.S. the government has regulatory authority over commerce between the states, foreign trade, and other business activities of national scope. Congress decides what things need to be regulated and passes laws that determine those regulations. Congress often does not include all the details needed to explain how an individual, business, state or local government, or others might follow the law. To make the laws work day-to-day, Congress authorizes government agencies to write the regulations which set the specific requirements about what is legal and what isn’t. The regulatory agencies then oversee these requirements.

In the U.S. startups might run into an alphabet soup of federal regulatory agencies, for example: ATF, CFPB,DEA, DoD, EPA, FAA, FCC, FDA, FDIC, FERC, FTC, OCC, OSHA, SEC. These agencies exist because Congress passed laws. 

State Regulation
In addition to federal laws, each State has its own regulatory environment that applies to businesses operating within the state in areas such as land-use, zoning, motor vehicles, state banking, building codes, public utilities, drug laws, etc.

Cities/County Regulation
Finally, local cities and counties may have local laws and regulatory agencies or departments like taxi commissions, zoning laws, public safety, permitting, building codes, sanitation, drug laws, etc.

Incumbents Advantage – Rent Seekers and Regulatory Capture
If you’re a startup entering a regulated market (Telecom, Pharma, Education, Energy, Department of Defense, Intelligence, Health, Fintech, Insurance, Transportation, Agriculture, Gaming, Cannabis, Petrochemicals, Automotive, Air Transportation, Fishing, et al.) you need to know that the game is rigged. And it’s not in your favor.

Incumbents in a regulated a market keep out new, innovative, and disruptive competitors  by “gaming the system” in their favor. They do this by either being Rent Seekers and/or by Regulatory Capture. (Bill Gurley’s point.)

Rent seekers are individuals or organizations with successful existing business models who use government regulation and lawsuits to keep out new entrants that might threaten their business models. They use every argument – from public safety to lack of quality or loss of jobs – to lobby against the new entrants. Rent seekers spend money lobbying to increase their share of an existing market instead of creating new products or markets but create nothing of value.

These barriers to new innovative startups are called economic rent. Examples of economic rent include state automobile franchise laws, taxi medallion laws, limits on charter schools, cable company monopolies, patent trolls, bribery of government officials, corruption, and regulatory capture.

Rent-seeking lobbyists go directly to legislative bodies (Congress, State Legislatures, City Councils) to persuade government officials and their staff to enact laws and regulations in exchange for campaign contributions, appeasing influential voting blocks, or the “revolving door” – offering officials future jobs in the industry they regulated. They use the courts to tie up and exhaust a startup’s limited financial resources. Their lobbyists also work through regulatory bodies like the FCC, SEC, FTC, Public Utility, Taxi, or Insurance Commissions, School Boards, etc.

Regulatory capture is what happens when the very organizations set up to protect the public’s health and safety, or to provide an equal playing field, are taken over by the very people they’re supposed to regulate. These are the examples Bill Gurley were talking about.

Tech Companies Use Regulatory Capture
In my first two decades inside the Silicon Valley bubble we built products people wanted and needed. We competed with other technology companies, and, like Bill Gurley, largely ignored whatever was going on in Washington. We were content Washington didn’t know we existed. Unless you were in life sciences (therapeutics, medical devices, or diagnostics), very little government regulation applied. We ignored Washington and Washington mostly ignored us (defense contractors excepted.)

The tech ecosystem got a rude awakening in May 1998 when the U.S. Justice Department and 20 state Attorneys General brought suit again Microsoft for anticompetitive practices designed to maintain its monopoly in PC operating systems and internet browsers. While tech hadn’t  come to Washington, Washington came for the tech industry. Until then no tech company had an organized lobbying organization of significance in DC.

Fast forward 25 years. The tech industry grew up and realized rather than running away from Washington they needed to play the game. Companies like Intuit mastered regulatory capture as a massive advantage while Big Tech (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Oracle, Intuit, Uber et al.) spent $124 million in lobbying and campaign contributions in the 2020 election with 333 registered lobbyists.

Startups have successfully disrupted regulated markets and rent seekers – Uber with local taxi licensing laws (a board Bill Gurley sat on with a ShowTime series highlighting his role), AirBnB with local zoning laws, Tesla with state dealership licensing, SpaceX competing with the Air Force and United Launch Alliance – and in doing so they have built impenetrable moats for their business.

What Do Startups Need to Know?
There’s nothing magical about dealing with regulated markets. However, every regulated market has its own rules, dynamics, language, players, politics, etc. And they are all very different from the business-to-consumer or business-to-business markets most founders and their investors are familiar with.

How do you know you’re in a regulated market? It’s simple– ask yourself three questions:

• Can I do anything I want or are there laws and regulations that might stop me or slow me down?
• Are there incumbents who will view us as a threat to the status quo? Can they use laws and regulations to impede our growth?
• Do you understand how the regulatory process works? For example, do you just fill out an online form and pay a $50 fee with your credit card and get a permit? Or do you need to spend millions of dollars and years running clinical trials to get FDA clearance and approval? And are these approvals good in every state? In every country? What do you need to do to sell worldwide?

What Do I Need to Do?
The first step is to understand what you’re up against. Who are the incumbents, who do they influence, how much are they spending on influence, who are their lobbyists, and what are their messages? And most importantly, how are they going to stop you from scaling?

Next, figure who are the other stakeholders, saboteurs, rent seekers, influencers, bureaucrats, politicians, and regulators. As you get out of the building and start talking to people you’ll discover more and more players. You’ll discover that the interests of your product’s end user versus a regulator versus an advocacy group, key opinion leaders or a politician, are radically different. For you to succeed you need to understand all of them.

Start diagraming out the relationships of all the customer segments. Who influences who? How do they interconnect? What laws and regulations are in your way for deployment and scale? How powerful are each of the players? For the politicians, what are their public positions versus actual votes and performance. Follow the money by using opensecrets.org. If an elected official’s major donor is organization x, you’re not going to be able to convince them with a cogent argument.  And most importantly, start asking “who are the best lobbyists/advisors in this market?”

The book Regulatory Hacking calls this diagram the Power Map. As an example, this is a diagram of the multiple beneficiaries and stakeholders that a software company developing math software for middle school students has to navigate. Your diagram may be more complex. There is no possible way you can draw this on day one of your startup. You’ll discover these players as you get out of the building and start filling out your value proposition canvases.

While this sounds complicated, entering a regulated market should be a strategy not a disconnected set of tactics. (Or worse obliviousness.) You need a lobbying/government relations strategy from day one.

Draw your strategy diagram (see figure below) and share it with your board. What regulatory issues need to be solved? In what order? For example, do you beg for forgiveness or ask for permission? How do you get regulators who don’t see a need to change to move? How do you get your early customers to advocate on your behalf? (The books The Fixer and Regulatory Hacking give examples of regulatory pitfalls, problems and suggested solutions.)

Most early stage startups don’t have the regulatory domain expertise in-house. Get outside advice at each step. Hire/advisors from the inside industry but use them to make you smarter not just to outsource the work. Having a meeting or two with a congressman or contributing to their campaign might get you a return call, but only sustained engagement (via money, influence, and an on-the-ground presence in D.C.) will move the needle. Eventually you’ll need to build an in-house team to manage regulatory affairs.

 Choose VCs who have experience in operating in regulated markets – not those who hope it stays away.  Have them tell you how they helped other companies in their portfolio succeed, pitfalls to avoid, and the lobbying resources they can bring to bear. You and your board need to be in sync about the costs and risks of getting into a street fight entering these markets. (Strategic choices include asking for permission versus forgiveness, public versus private battles. Tactical activities can include influencing key opinion leaders, political donations, advocacy groups, and grassroots and grasstops campaigns, etc.)

Finally, as an innovation ecosystem (VCs, their limited partners, and startups) we need to do a better job in insisting in transparency in government, calling out rent seekers and regulators who no longer regulate, and try to keep government from premature regulation of new innovation. For the majority of regulators and policymakers who want to make the system better, we can help shape policy by educating them on why the products/changes we are proposing make the world  a better place.

But startups? They need to understand the game and work the system.

Post note. Ironically the best example of premature government regulation was AT&T and U.S. telephone service. In 1921 AT&T argued that telephone service was a natural monopoly, and that competition was inefficient. The government agreed and land line communications became a government sanctioned monopoly for the next 63 years. Innovation in telecom outside of AT&T died and the industry could only innovate as fast as AT&T approved. A possible proxy for why the incumbent AI providers went to Congress. They want to lock-in their lead.

Lessons Learned

• If you’re in regulated market, often the game is rigged by incumbents
  • Understand Rent Seeking and Regulatory Capture
  • You need a lobbying/government relations strategy from day one
• Choose VCs who understand how to play the game not those who hope it stays away
• The CEO needs to get out of the building to understand the regulatory ecosystem
  • CEO and board need to be in sync about the learning and strategy
• Hire initial lobbyists (but learn from them, not just outsource to them)
  • As the company gets larger staff an internal public affairs group to manage the lobbying effort
• If you figure out the regulatory game, it can be your defensible moat

Filed under: Corporate/Gov't Innovation | 3 Comments »

Laura Thomas is a former CIA operations officer. Reading how she moved in 2021 from CIA ops to a quantum technology company offered insightful career transition advice for those leaving her agency. Most of her lessons were applicable to any government employee venturing out to the private sector.

Below is the second of her three-part series. Read part one here.

Before leaving government service one of my biggest challenges was to understand how my skill as a Case Officer would translate into a job in the commercial world. I had to spend a lot of time learning a new language and new job descriptions. Here’s what I learned.

What would you like to do/can do? Some commercial company roles:

Business Development or “BD” roles: Case Officers are well suited for business development (BD) roles as its akin to first half of the CIA recruitment cycle. In a business development role you’re out shaping the perception of your company in the market (networking), determining leads, and contacting leads. The larger the company, the more they’ll separate out business development and sales, with business development focused primarily on lead generation and sales focused on sealing the actual sale of the product or service.

Sales roles: The sales cycle is similar to the recruitment cycle of a source. At a small company, you have the ability to do the whole sales cycle, which integrates strategy, business development, sales, and customer success: figure out what you should sell, who you should sell it to, how to get in touch with them, actually get in touch with them, sell it, keep selling to them and make sure they’re happy (customer success), and at some point, decide whether to move on to better sales targets, or convince your company they need to be selling something different. At a large company, sales usually means someone else has done the broad shaping for a potential customer. You just have to go in and work through the mechanics of selling them on your product or service.

Customer Success roles: This is akin to handling a source. You make sure the customer is happy and keeps buying, preferably more.

Security roles: Some ex-Agency people gravitate to roles in security. I discovered that while I know a lot about tradecraft-related security and how to stay alive for the first minutes of an ambush, I know little about building security and computer systems security. Some companies will see your CIA background and confuse it with roles that are more akin to FBI or law enforcement. If you worked in an actual cybersecurity or security role, you can learn it and integrate well into those teams.

Trust and Safety roles, Threat and Business Intelligence roles: If you’ve been a targeter and/or an analyst these might be good fits. The role broadly is to protect a company and its people/users (or multiple companies) by tracking bad actors and threats. In large companies these roles report to a security division (however there are entire companies  just providing Threat and Business Intelligence).

Government Affairs/Legislative Affairs roles: Large companies pay to have people represent them on Capitol Hill and advocate for their interests. If you have significant experience engaging with and briefing the Hill, this is a possibility, however you’ll be competing against staffers rotating off committees who are actually much better equipped than you as far as networking and know-how. You may be able to join a larger company’s government affairs team at a more junior to mid-level, and you’ll probably find your skills most relevant to a company that works on national security-related issues.

At first many start-ups hire a lobbying firm. You may be able to step in once they want to transition into an in-house role for this, but keep in mind that they’re looking for the Capitol Hill contacts you already have, as well as your ability to work the legislative process, not just your briefing or networking skills.

Strategy and Operations roles: These roles help make sure vision, resources (budgets and people), and the market opportunity are aligned. Working closely with the CEO or CFO, they help figure out what to do to make things go right, and what to do when things go wrong. The smaller the company, the bigger your chance at a role like this.

A Chief of Staff role, for example, is largely a strategy role, but is heavily dependent on the needs of the CEO/company. In my case, at Infleqtion I’m the person who tells our CEO what he needs to hear, not necessarily what he wants to hear. I also serve as an executive advisor – from product strategy to setting business milestones to working with investors. I also work closely with all members of the executive team, the Board of Directors, and Advisory Board. I think this role is ideal for a former Case Officer, but I’m obviously biased.

Larger companies hiring a Chief of Staff often look for someone who has an MBA, experience with one of the big consulting firms, or experience doing the job already.

Entrepreneur: A successful CIA case officer must be able to operate amid ambiguity and make judgment calls that require strong second- and third-order thinking. Achievement-focused and good storytellers, they know how to figure things out, “read the room,” and assess and mitigate risk. Most people believe case officers and entrepreneurs are big risk takers, when, in fact, they’re risk mitigators.

If you find an A-player CIA officer jumping into a founder role mid-way in their career (or decide to start something yourself,) they’ll probably go on to do great things. They have enough confidence in themselves to leave without the safety net of a future pension as well as the energy, ambition, and know-how to navigate uncertainty. The same Emotional Quotient and approach that attracts investors will also attract excellent employees.

Venture Capitalist: An early-stage VC requires some of the same skills as a Case Officer – spotting, assessing, developing, recruiting, and handling founders building a company amid an uncertain operating environment that will bring a heavy return on investment. (However, many VCs have also accrued years/decades as domain experts in the technologies/and or industries they invest in.) Being a successful VC and successful case officer both involve some levels of luck and timing misattributed to skill. The biggest difference is in the VC world, nobody is going to die.

If you’re a Retiree leaving with a full pension – you have different choices than a “job.” You can:

• consult
• sit on a company Advisory Board or Board of Directors
• serve as a senior executive at a small company (you’ll be expected to actually work, not pontificate and delegate) or mid- to senior level at a larger company (you might just be a face)
• get hired by Wall Street/Private Equity/VC firms assuming you’re senior enough and have enough New York or Silicon Valley connections

For 2-4, you’re generally being hired for your name and the introductions you can make assuming you’re within the top 15 of leadership.

Boards: The term “board” can mean two very different things in the commercial world – an Advisory Board versus a Board of Directors. An Advisory Board provides advice. It has no legal role in the company. Often companies will put you on their advisory board just to use your name and image (and not really want your advice). Every company can organize and compensate its advisory board any way it likes. Some Advisory Boards meet once a quarter, others once a year. Advisory Board members may field weekly to monthly emails and calls from the company executive team to provide feedback on strategy and positioning and make introductions. Advisory Board members are often paid in a balance of equity (stock options) and cash (“cash” is the industry term for money wired to your bank account).

A Board of Directors has a formal and legal role. It provides governance and financial oversight to the company. They can vote to hire and fire the CEO. CEOs seek their advice (and often must seek their formal approval) for major strategic decisions such as acquisitions, major budget changes, hiring of C-level executives, etc.) Formal Board positions are harder to come by. If you’re an A-player from the senior-most ranks, consider joining a private company board if you’re aligned with their mission and team. They need you.

For me, personally: People in the senior ranks at startups usually call themselves operators. Obviously, that’s a different definition of the term. I knew I wanted to stay/go into an operator role because that’s where the business learning I sought would happen. I didn’t want to have to sell back into the intelligence community, because I didn’t want to leverage my contacts so tactically, but plenty of people do it (and we need good people to do it. We all know how badly the government needs commercial technology solutions). From the start, my job was closest to a business development role. Because it was a small company and I was going from top-down with the CEO rather than responding to a job advertisement, I was able to craft my function and initial title as, “Senior Director of National Security Solutions.” I began writing unsolicited strategy docs for the CEO. This ultimately led me into a strategy role, which led me into a strategy and fundraising role. I also took an advisory role with another startup working on national security technology, QuSecure.

Where should you go? Big company or small?  Choose big for stability and higher salaries. Choose small for learning, growth, and impact. In large companies, they usually want you in a narrow and specific role. However, you will have more roles you could move into if the first one isn’t a great fit. If you join a big company, assuming it’s public, you’ll get stock which immediately can translate into financial gains assuming the company performs well. The salaries are almost always higher. You can get rich in a big company (at least by our humble government standards), but rarely wealthy based on returns from that company alone.

At small companies, you wear many hats at once. I wanted to understand the daily challenges a company faced at the senior levels in trying to push a new technology in government markets and commercial markets, and how capital flows impacted all of this. However, a bigger company is more defined in terms of a 9-to-5. I work just as much now as I did in the field. And though I work from an office most days, I also work from home, which affords a lot of flexibility because I’m not chained to a SCIF.

You can get wealthy with the right startup, but many startups fail, so it’s a long shot. Of course, “wealth” is subjective. More than money, most of us crave impact. Both are possible on the outside.

How should you think about and mitigate risk if joining a startup? Know your appetite for risk. If you’re really bold, join an early-stage company (seed stage, Series A), but have conviction about the team. You may need to cover some portion of your own salary for a year. If you need to make a salary equivalent to what you make in government, target startups that have closed a Series B round within the last few months. If you’ve received a formal offer from a startup, ask how much runway (months of cash left) they have. If they won’t discuss any aspects of runway or value of the equity package they’re offering, look elsewhere.

Look before you leap. Talk with multiple employees at the company. Try to talk with an investor in the company. Research their Board of Directors and Advisory Board members and contact some of them. Look for people on LinkedIn who used to work at the company, reach out to them and ask why they left.

Being part of a “failed” startup is not a badge of dishonor. Most startups fail, especially those in the early stages. So long as you and the company weren’t operating unethically and illegally, it’s not a red flag on your resume. In fact, this sort of experience matters far more to the next prospective tech startup employer than the decade+ that you put in at the Agency.

Action:

A) If you’re an A-player, stay in government.
B) If you’re an A-player and leave, do great things on the outside and return to government service at some point.

Coming up next:

• Part III – title, compensation (salary + equity + bonuses) and resources you can use.

Read the rest of Laura’s blogs at https://www.lauraethomas.com/

Filed under: Corporate/Gov't Innovation | Leave a comment »